EU airline industry warns of jet fuel shortages if Strait of Hormuz stays closed

ACI Europe warns of systemic jet fuel shortage within three weeks

Europe faces systemic jet fuel shortages this summer if the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen to shipping, the continent's main airports trade body has told EU policymakers. Airports Council International (ACI) Europe wrote to European commissioners for energy and tourism on 9 April, warning that a supply crisis was no longer a theoretical risk.

The Gulf region supplies roughly half of Europe's aviation fuel imports. ACI Europe director-general Olivier Jankovec told commissioners that if Hormuz passage did not resume in a significant and stable way within three weeks, systemic shortages would become a reality across the EU.

"A supply crunch would severely disrupt airport operations and air connectivity, with the risk of harsh economic impacts for the communities affected, and for Europe," Jankovec wrote.

Smaller airports face greatest exposure

ACI Europe identified smaller airports as the most vulnerable. Jankovec warned that airports serving fewer than one million passengers per year were already struggling with financial viability before accounting for fuel shortage pressures. A prolonged supply crunch could make those operations unviable entirely, threatening regional air connectivity and the communities dependent on it.

The trade body said the crisis could undermine European cohesion if smaller airports serving peripheral regions were forced to cut services or close. Air travel contributes 851 billion euros to European GDP each year and supports 14 million jobs across the continent.

Jet fuel prices reach record high as supply fears grow

European jet fuel prices hit an all-time high of $1,838 per tonne last week, more than double the $831 per tonne recorded before the war in the Middle East began. Several airlines worldwide have already cut flights and raised passenger charges in response to the cost pressure.

The price spike reflects both physical supply concerns and market sentiment around the conflict's duration. Aviation is uniquely exposed to Gulf disruption because kerosene supply chains rely on Middle Eastern crude refining and seaborne distribution. Unlike road transport, which can source from a wider range of refining hubs, commercial aviation has fewer viable substitutes at scale.

ACI Europe calls for EU intervention and collective purchasing

Jankovec urged the EU to act rather than wait for markets to adjust, writing that relying on market forces and adaptation alone was not an option. He criticised the absence of an EU-wide monitoring and assessment system for jet fuel production and availability, calling it a structural gap the crisis had exposed.

ACI Europe is asking the EU to organise collective purchasing of aviation fuel and to temporarily lift restrictions on jet fuel imports from alternative sources. The body also called for the crisis to serve as an accelerator for sustainable aviation fuel, arguing that the long-term price of conventional kerosene is unlikely to return to pre-war levels.

UK government says airlines are operating normally

The UK government said British carriers had not reported supply disruptions and were continuing to operate as normal. A government spokesperson confirmed that ministers were working with UK airlines to support their operations given the backdrop of the Middle East conflict and to limit the impact on passengers.

The UK's position diverges somewhat from ACI Europe's framing, though British carriers draw on the same global fuel markets and face the same price environment as their continental counterparts. The statement did not address the three-week timeline ACI Europe set out in its letter to EU commissioners.

Industry impact

The warning from ACI Europe marks a significant escalation in how the aviation sector is framing the Strait of Hormuz closure. Previous industry statements focused on cost pressures. This letter explicitly names systemic shortage as the outcome within a defined window, which puts pressure on policymakers to act rather than monitor.

If the EU moves toward collective fuel purchasing, it would represent an unusual degree of state coordination in a market that has operated on commercial terms since deregulation. The mechanism would need to be designed quickly. Three weeks leaves little time for procurement frameworks, and the summer peak season begins in earnest through May and June, leaving minimal runway before demand hits its annual high.

Smaller regional airports remain the most exposed. Fuel allocation under a shortage scenario tends to prioritise high-volume hubs, as suppliers and airlines optimise for the routes that generate the most revenue per litre consumed. Without an explicit EU policy intervention protecting smaller airports, the market outcome is likely to concentrate supply at major hubs at the expense of regional connectivity.