European Markets Rally as Trump Abandons Tariff Plans on Eight Nations
Stock markets across Europe posted solid gains Thursday as investors reacted to Donald Trump's decision to scrap proposed tariffs targeting eight European nations, a reversal analysts characterised as the latest example of the "Trump Always Chickens Out" phenomenon.
London's FTSE 100 climbed 0.8% to reach 10,225 points, whilst Germany's Dax and France's Cac both advanced 1.4%. The broader Stoxx 600 index similarly rose 1.4%, and US markets were positioned to open higher.
The rally marked the first positive session this week for European equities, following Trump's earlier announcement of tariffs scheduled to begin 1 February against Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Denmark, Sweden, the Netherlands, Norway and Finland. The measures were linked to negotiations over a potential US acquisition of Greenland.
Trump reversed course Wednesday, first ruling out military action to secure Greenland during remarks at the World Economic Forum in Davos. He subsequently announced on his social media platform that tariffs would not proceed, citing what he described as a framework agreement with Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte, though specifics were not disclosed.
Richard Hunter, head of markets at Interactive Investor, described the market response as "the return of the Taco trade," referencing investor behaviour patterns around Trump's policy announcements.
After sharp declines earlier in the week, global equities began recovering Wednesday afternoon in New York trading.
Neil Wilson, strategist at Saxo, noted the familiar pattern. "From the market point of view, it's the classic Taco trade. The pivot has left markets buoyant as the very real threat of a trade war has receded," he said.
Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid, head of macro and thematic research, characterised the moves as "a big relief rally as investors priced out escalatory scenarios, with financial stress easing across multiple asset classes." He observed, however, that both the S&P 500 and the US dollar remained below their levels from the previous Friday.
Investor sentiment also received support from proceedings at the US Supreme Court regarding Trump's effort to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. The attempt is widely interpreted as pressure on the central bank to reduce interest rates. Conservative justices appeared unconvinced by certain administration arguments, according to observers.
Currency markets showed limited movement Thursday morning in London, with the euro trading at $1.1689 and sterling at $1.3427 against the dollar.
Gold maintained its position near record highs at $4,833 per troy ounce, continuing to attract investors amid uncertainty surrounding US assets.
Lee Hardman, senior currency analyst at MUFG, said market participants welcomed the removal of immediate threats. "Market participants have expressed initial relief that the threat of US military action or tariffs is off the table at least for now, although will remain wary that they could return if talks don't progress as President Trump desires in the coming weeks and months," he stated.
Hardman added that preventing a retaliatory trade conflict represented a positive development for global economic prospects, supporting expectations for stronger growth in the current year.
Industry impact and market implications
Thursday's market reaction demonstrates the sensitivity of European equities to transatlantic trade policy, particularly given the region's export exposure to the United States. The threatened tariffs would have affected major European economies already contending with subdued growth and energy transition costs.
For multinational corporations operating across the Atlantic, policy unpredictability creates planning challenges around supply chains, pricing strategies, and capital allocation. The automotive, pharmaceutical, and industrial sectors face particular vulnerability to trade barriers given their integrated cross-border operations.
The Taco trade pattern itself reflects institutional investor strategies around Trump administration announcements. Markets have increasingly priced in the possibility of policy reversals, potentially reducing immediate volatility but raising questions about long-term policy credibility and business planning horizons.
Currency market stability following the announcement suggests traders view the tariff threat as contained for now, though gold's continued strength near record levels indicates persistent hedging against broader geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
The Supreme Court case regarding Federal Reserve governance carries implications beyond monetary policy. A successful presidential intervention in central bank appointments could undermine institutional independence, affecting inflation expectations, bond pricing, and corporate borrowing costs across developed markets.
European companies dependent on predictable trade frameworks may still face recurring uncertainty if similar threats re-emerge during future negotiations, potentially affecting investment decisions and competitive positioning against Asian and domestic US rivals.
